On Thursday, the Rosario Exchange printed the most bullish numbers that we have seen. They see Argentine corn falling to 48 million metric tons mmt 1. That is the lowest number that we have seen to date. Corn was still reeling from the higher-than-expected U.
A record yield of bushels per acre bpa and , additional harvested acres combined to result in the second largest crop ever, at The fact that USDA cut corn exports by 75 million bushels mb was baffling to most, as South American crops slid rapidly lower, while the rise in corn for ethanol following fourteen straight weeks of exceeding the average needed grind, was certainly understandable. Ethanol margins were still in the green, but well below November margins. Managed funds remain net long a sizable corn position.
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European Futures Trading Guide. European Trading Guide Historical Performance. Consider only a year or two ago the majority of Canadian peas were destined for China, quite a different story this year. Having a few other avenues to move product has definitely helped out this year. The canary seed market still hanging out at historical highs. That said, these prices have resulted in some end-use demand destruction and more affordable product substitution.
So, for now, the canary market is blinking twice and pausing to assess its next steps. Statistical organizations continue to assess and reassess production levels, with a recent leaning towards taking production levels lower. The price has doubled since August 5, , as short supply continues to plague the market. Oats seem to be following other crops that belong to the value-added markets which are also seeing large increases in pricing.
At current pricing levels, sales on both old and new crop have oats poised to be one of, if not the best, returning cereal crops. If you have oats in the bins give us a call to discuss pricing options. Pins and needles await those interested in the StatsCan results of the dry bean crop here at home. The picture will be painted in due time, but until then, who wants to gamble on both yield and acres? Drought and thus yield issues in the Prairies mixed with a solid yield, but lack of seeded acres in Ontario proves to be a bit of a gambit for the prognosticators right now.
Bids are getting harder to come by it seems at these levels without movement being pushed way out into the spring.
So, best to talk with your merchant and come up with a strategy to market what you have left. Again, we hear reports of Russia selling into the market as competition on the world front. Lots of our price premium is being sold into markets in North America. Spring wheat futures took a step back this week, with most markets significantly down on Tuesday.
Despite the futures drop, bids are staying relatively strong for 1 CWRS with We have options for all qualities of durum as well so let us know your specs.
On the milling side, a 1, Recent reports suggest the possibility of active tenders, but so far, nothing has traded yet. We will keep an eye out for something to shake through as this will help to determine 1 CWAD and lower grade bids. Historically these are some great values to lock in.
Even more worrisome is the fact that current values have started to feel heavy with the few buyers left willing to purchase and we could see another drop.
For those in Eastern Saskatchewan, there is potential for higher bids, but growers should expect summer movement. Chinese imports in October totalled 13, tonnes with Canada only accounting for tonnes of that, with the remaining coming from Russia.
Current flax values only work for the US market and once that market fills the demand, we could see bids settle down to match the global markets. The US market was holding up our local yellow pea values, but with reports of demand being filled, we start to see a slowdown and suspect yellow pea bids will stall out for now.
That said, there remains the potential for bids to pull back further if steady farmer selling continues. New crop programs have been slow to start for greens and maples, but if you have a target price in mind let your merchant know and we can set up a firm offer. Oats are not just the best of the bad options for this coming year, they are a money maker.
Canary seed prices are stagnant this week as buyers are not aggressively looking for product and sellers are in no rush to sell into a sideways market. Supplies are tight for sure, but canary seed markets can dry up without notice and product can become very tough to move, so while expecting prices might yet creep up, just ripping off the band-aid, selling it all and forgetting about it is not a bad play either.
Keep in mind, current bids are double what they normally say is a good selling point on canary. Canola futures are up once again this week, which is no big surprise as they have seen significant strength for multiple weeks in a row now. A rally in soybean and soy oil futures earlier in the week gave some support to canola, despite palm oil taking a step back.
Weakness in the Canadian dollar also helped, making canola relatively cheaper to import for foreign buyers. It is believed the current stats are too high with the lower yields and less acres in Mexico is well into their seeding and ahead of schedule for a typical year.
Across the pond, India experienced heavier than usual rainfall which meant a later start to their seeding. The rainfall benefits supersede any late start by far. If you need seed, give us a call! Barley markets have been maintaining strength week after week. Corn is still a possible replacement for barley, but so far has only slowed the potential on value uptick.
It seems there is still product in the bins as these values keep inching upwards, but the bulk of production has likely been traded.
If we run into a cold winter and supply is weak, there could be more record-breaking values in the future. The red lentil market continues to be stale without much change seen this week. It is getting tougher to find cent bids, but opportunities to move small tonnage do exist pending location.
India seems to be covering their needs with the Russian crop, as they await the upcoming Australian harvest. The report will likely will not affect reds as much as green lentils, as there are other sources available to purchase reds but less supply of the greens.
The report gets released next Friday so markets may not react to the news until the following week. Soybeans are taking their lead from other grains this week. The industry is now focused on any news coming out of South America, where record-breaking production is anticipated.
Dry bean carryover inventory continues to weigh over grower bids, but with that said, inventories remain in firm hands. Defying the odds, mustard actually seems to have gained strength again this past week. We know it seems a bit wild, and one likes to think this rise will continue, but everything has a top…right? Where are we going from here? We are now seeing new crop acres being booked and grower targets rolling in with buyers willing to entertain at all reasonable offers.
The cent FOB farm mark for yellow mustard is being quoted with about a 5-cent discount for brown and likely a cent discount for oriental. These prices look outstanding and include an act of God. We are also seeing an increase in seed bookings this week, so be sure to call your merchant on all types of mustard. Yellow pea bids are still holding strong this week, but with US markets pulling back a bit, we could see a ceiling created for Canadian values.
China and the US are currently the main importers of yellows, so there may be some downside potential as markets waiver and buyers show decent coverage for the time being.
It remains uncertain if this will translate into increased acres, but the possibility is there. Current Canadian FOB farm bids remain the same as last week. Buyers are also still showing some interest in new crop yellow peas; call your merchant if you have a target price in mind. Minimal changes are seen in the wheat world this week as milling values remain supported and we continue to see a strong push for feed product. On the milling side of things, a 1, If interested in these prices, one would highly suggest calling in and talking to a Rayglen merchant as recent programs on durum seem to fill rather quick.
With soy and palm oil markets showing strength, some weakness in canola futures may coming from expected shipping issues due to rail lines and roads being washed out in the recent BC storms. Despite this recent news, the outlook continues to be strong for canola moving forward. So, get a good handle on what you have and take advantage while these all-time prices are available.
Hopefully the health food craze of oat milk is here to stay! Lentil bids remain relatively unchanged from last week, but now concerns over possible shipping delays due to flooding and rail disasters in British Columbia creep into mind.
Green lentils experienced a small, but welcomed, increase in demand this week as we see a few more buyers asking about small and large greens. Lentil markets continue to trade hand to mouth with most buyers searching for limited tonnage. Take advantage of these opportunities when they pop up. The barley market continues to plug along this week with little change.
Movement, for the most part, is getting pushed into the new year, but values remain historically strong for both feed and malt. We have buyers willing to purchase off spec malt as well, so be sure to have your grade sheets ready.
Soybean market buoys on hopefulness from the virtual meeting between U. Domestic US demand and edible oil global demand are also bolstering soybean market confidence. Canadian chickpea values are losing a little steam as recent US domestic trade volume begins to fill.
Export buyers continue to indicate buying reluctance at current Canadian values. Around the globe, the next kabuli harvest will occur in Mexico and India. Mexican acres are thought to be down and there is some indication that Indian acres may increase based on higher local values.
Flax prices are a mixed bag this week and while bids are holding strong for new year shipment, the pool of buyers willing to pay top end values is dwindling.
Yellow flax also remains strong with bids seen on old and new crop catered to variety. Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss pricing options. The strongest demand for flax has been coming out of the US, however, the volume of demand is getting thinner and once the US is satisfied with their volume, business will have to shift.
Exports to China have been limited as Canadian values are too high. Analysts still question whether Canada is pricing themselves out of other global markets such as China and the EU. There is not much different to talk about this week on the mustard front. Oriental continues strong and would likely trade around the cent mark for Forge or Vulcan type, with some buyers even willing to entertain Cutlass variety at those levels.
We are now seeing new crop acres being booked and grower targets rolling in with buyers looking at all reasonable offers. Please be aware of the seed situation as it is critical to find a pure supply. Talk to us about all types of mustard seed delivered to your yard as we have been delivering product to farm for years and make it as easy as possible for you. As always, firm targets are a great way to show the market what you have available.
Targets have and continue to be an effective marketing tool over the past few months. The pea market has had little to no change from last week. The US market continues to support Canadian yellow peas which is holding our bids above other pea producing countries.
Reports suggest India will be heading into the rabi season with a good amount of moisture, indicating positive planting conditions. However, their pea prices are down, so we wait to see if this will reduce pea plantings or not.
The best pricing opportunities for milling oats continue to be in Eastern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba. Bids are available all around the province though so be sure to let us know what you have and your pricing target. After a small step back at the end of last week, January canola futures jumped right back into positive territory this week. Lentils have had another quiet week as markets continue tread lightly. Major concerns remain with the upcoming Australian harvest, logistical problems, and the fact that lentils are still priced at historically high levels.
At this point buyers seem content with purchasing hand to mouth or just sitting on the sideline hoping values come down. Sample and feed grade bids seem to be the most active, as the pet food market is looking for product. If you have poor quality lentils give us a call as there should be a home for them at strong values.
The Canary seed market remains much the same this week. Global markets are watching export numbers and seeing much of the world chickpea demand being filled outside of Canada.
North America currently has the top-ranking values, which in turn has buyers looking elsewhere for product. The US was the main catalyst for Canadian chickpea exporting, but as of late, that demand seems to be tapering off, which would explain some buyers tightening their bids. Yellow flax also remains strong with bids on old and new crop being catered to variety. If you have some product in the bin, call your Rayglen merchant to discuss pricing options.
The strongest demand for flax has been coming out of the US. Some analysts question whether Canada is pricing themselves out of other global markets such as China and the EU.
The main question is: will this market lose some steam once US demand is content and shifts business elsewhere?
In select areas, for premium barley heavy and very dry , we have seen stronger values indicated. This is mostly applicable in the Southeast area of Saskatchewan and for those who are interested, please call to discuss. Support in the barley market comes from reports that nearly half a million MT of barley left the country in early Fall to parts unknown… well not unknown, just not here.
The yield cut Significant carryover volumes continue to temper dry bean prices. This may be countered by sedate farmer selling. There was minimal change in the USDA report regarding wheat. Global and US supply stocks are soft, which continues to lend support for a positive trading atmosphere. As such, milling prices on a There is some buyer interest in SWS as well and if you are looking for homes, give your Rayglen merchant a call for pricing and movement in your area.
Durum bids continue to trade at strong values with options to move product this calendar year. Look to see pricing in SE Sask.
Buyers are always entertaining offers, so if you have a firm bid let us know. Not much change in the very hot mustard market this week as we continue to trade light volumes at record levels. It could be a firm offer that helps you get the sale done above expectations. We have had discussions with many growers on new crop values. Again, these prices look absolutely phenomenal including an act of God.
Mustard seed sales have started early and are starting to pick up. If mustard is an option for you, it is critical to find a pure supply. Talk to us about all types of mustard seed delivered to your yard. We have been delivering product to farm for years and make it as easy as possible for you.
Chickpea markets are flatline for another week. As the days continue with no pipeline of business out of Canada, other countries seed and harvest chickpea crops that can sustain needs typically filled by Canadian origin. Buyers are not holding as large of a stockpile as they usually do, and the trickle-down effect is adding to the stalled market. No bids yet on new crop, but buyers are always interested in hearing where they need to be to make it work.
Call if you want to set a target and test the market. Canary seed markets remain much the same as the previous couple of weeks. Demand does not seem to be very strong however, so if this is a price you are considering, we would highly suggest acting on these values before needs are filled.
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